The Biotech Trends 2010 report, recently published by Pharma Reports, lays down seven of the trends one should expect to see in the coming year.
Increasing Government Support Worldwide
In many countries, government support is one of the most important forces fueling biotech development. One such initiative is China's National medium and long-term Science and Technology Development Plan Outline (2006–2020) which indicates that in the next 15 years, China will deploy a series of cutting-edge technologies in the biotechnology sector. The Government will also increase investments in the biopharmaceutical sector. The same situation can be expected in other countries, where government bodies are taking the initiative to develop the biotech industry.
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IP Protection Enforcement
Countries such as China and Brazil are making strides in protecting IP rights in conformity with World Trade Organization requirements. This trend will continue in the future, and these efforts are leading to increased confidence in developing countries’ IP protection system. For example, this improved IP protection was a key reason Novartis chose to set up its eighth global R&D center in China in November 2006. Other multinational companies have also established R&D centers in China.
Increasing R&D Investment and Establishing Product Pipelines
Biopharmaceutical companies worldwide are becoming more aware of the need for R&D investment and are actively seeking sources of funding for product R&D. Several biopharmaceutical organizations are attempting to establish effective technology platforms to meet the needs of R&D, pilot experiments, clinical studies, and production.
A Highly Volatile Industry
Over the past ten years, several trigger points have influenced the biotechnology market valuations. Technological achievements with strong public awareness, such as the cloning of ‘Dolly’ the sheep and the first complete sequencing of a model organism, have raised the expectations for further scientific breakthroughs and hopes for wider applications of biotechnology. Other incidents, such as President Clinton’s and Prime Minister Blair’s statements that the genome information “should be made freely available to scientists everywhere” or the Human Cloning Prohibition Act, triggered rapid declines of the stock markets, as investors feared that intellectual property rights were threatened and realized how susceptible this young industry was to regulatory intervention. These conflicting views on biotechnology in the last decade were reflected in the high volatility of the capital markets. The question remains, how the biotechnology industry will develop in future.
Aging Population Combined with Rising Healthcare Costs
In 1990, the worldwide population of 65 and older was estimated at 480 million. This number is projected to nearly triple to 1,250 million from 1990 to 2030. Aging of the world‘s population is the result of two factors: reproduction and increase in life expectancy. In addition, in developed countries, the largest ever gain in life expectancy occurred during the 20th century when female life expectancy rose 71% and that of males increased 66%.
As a consequence, the developed world is facing the prospect of static or negative population growth. The growing number of persons aged 65 years and older will lead to increased healthcare costs. This increase coupled with continued advances in medical technology, is putting health and long-term care spending under pressure. The demands associated with long-term care pose a great challenge for both personal and public resources.
Lack of Human Capital
The aging population and the subsequent increase in demand for healthcare services as described above are directly proportional to the increased requirement of healthcare professionals. In USA alone, hospitals report that 13% of pharmacists’ positions, 13% of nurses, 15% for imaging technicians, 12% for laboratory technologists, and 6% for IT technologists are vacant. The shortage contributes to delays in treatment and makes it more difficult for patients to receive the required care.
Biotechnology is more dependent on basic research than most other sectors. The breadth of disciplines across the biotechnology sector and the speed of technology development represents special challenges for building a skilled pool of human capital and pipeline of future talent.
Although governments across the globe have been launching initiatives in response to the need for skills and talent, an acute shortage of researchers and scientists looms ahead. Strong regional differences can also be observed. Europe, for example, does not have enough scientists and researchers – 5.3 per 1000 compared to 9 per 1000 in the U.S. and 9.7 per 1000 in Japan. This gap is likely to increase.
Increase in Diseases
Human population growth, globalization and changes in human behavior, lifestyle and increased trade and travel, have determined the incidence and distribution of different infectious diseases around the world.
Of the most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide, tuberculosis (TB), malaria, hepatitis, and, in particular, HIV / AIDS continue to surge, with HIV / AIDS and tuberculosis accounting for the majority of deaths due to infectious diseases in developing countries. In addition, outbreaks of infectious diseases such as SARS or bird flu and the latest Swine Flu can spread rapidly, causing enormous loss of life, resources and costs.
Today only about 20% of the public / private R&D funding is targeted at lower respiratory diseases (including influenza), HIV, malaria, tuberculosis and diarrhea. For tuberculosis alone, WHO estimates that the full funding of their ‘Global Plan to Stop TB 2006–2015’ over the next 5 years will cost $56 billion and represents a three-fold increase in the required investment. The estimated funding gap is $31 billion. | 
